By buld_online 
Gold prices have surged past the Rs 1 lakh mark on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets. The MCX gold rate recently settled at Rs 1,00,314 per 10 grams on Friday, reflecting heightened risk aversion and a global flight to safety amid fears of regional instability.
Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, noted that Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure have been a key trigger in pushing gold higher. “Geopolitical issues are escalating, and if tensions worsen, gold could surge toward $3,500 per ounce,” she said. The market’s sharp response signals broader unease across financial systems, with investors hedging against potential fallout, including disrupted oil supplies and wider economic consequences.
While some analysts point to safe-haven buying, others suggest the rally is being driven more by speculative activity. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, said, “The recent price increase appears to be largely driven by algorithmic trades and speculative positioning rather than pure fundamental demand.” He added that while gold is often seen as a geopolitical hedge, its reliability in such scenarios has historically been mixed.
Adding to the momentum is the weakness in the US Dollar Index, which has slumped to a three-year low due to lacklustre economic indicators and policy uncertainty. This decline has further boosted gold’s relative appeal, particularly in emerging markets. “The rupee weakened by 60 paise to 86.10, amplifying gold’s gains in India,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.
Trivedi highlighted that gold surged by Rs 1,500–Rs 1,900 per 10 grams following the Israeli attacks, as fears of Iranian retaliation and potential nuclear site strikes stirred fresh buying. “Support now lies at ₹98,000, with short-term resistance extending to Rs 1,02,500,” he said.
Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, sees a bullish trend ahead unless there is a dramatic shift in global monetary policy or a de-escalation of tensions. NS Ramaswamy of Ventura Securities also sees upward momentum continuing, pegging near-term targets around Rs 1,02,000, underpinned by strong macroeconomic support and steady demand.
Gold in 2025
Gold’s 2025 performance has been exceptional, delivering a 31% year-to-date return, making it one of the best-performing asset classes globally. Its consistent track record—positive returns in 16 of the past 20 years—underscores its resilience amid market volatility.
Looking ahead, global investment houses like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America remain bullish. They project that central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainty could push gold to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and possibly $4,000 by mid-2026.
As global markets continue to grapple with instability, the role of gold as a hedge against uncertainty appears stronger than ever. Experts suggest that unless diplomacy eases Middle East tensions or macroeconomic trends shift dramatically, gold is likely to remain on its upward trajectory—cementing its status as a trusted store of value in turbulent times.